← Premier League 2020-21 · Mon, Oct 26, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Moss
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Brighton win | 57% | 63% | 1.67 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 24% | 12% | 4.30 | fair |
| West Brom win | 19% | 26% | 5.26 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Brighton −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| West Brom −0.75 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 41% | 1.96 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 59% | 1.96 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The American Express Community Stadium |