← Premier League 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 4, 06:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Atkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 66% | 81% | 1.47 | value: +19% ⚠ |
| Draw | 20% | 7% | 5.10 | fair |
| Aston Villa win | 14% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Liverpool +1.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 53% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 47% | 2.92 | value: +36% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 22' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 33' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 35' | ⚽ | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 38' | 🟨 | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 39' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 46' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ross Barkley · Aston Villa |
| 60' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jack Grealish · Aston Villa |
| 75' | ⚽ |
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 11 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| Jack Grealish · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marvelous Nakamba · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 734.00 | 1291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 3.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| elo | 1464.73 | 1929.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 54.43 | 24.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.54 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 6.06 | 5.97 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.37 | 27.08 |
| state index | 0.62 | 1.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 125.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |