← Premier League 2020-21 · Mon, Sep 28, 04:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 40% | 26% | 2.48 | fair |
| Fulham win | 32% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 46% | 3.49 | value: +62% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham +0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Aston Villa +0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 65% | 1.91 | value: +24% |
| Over | 49% | 35% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Jack Grealish · Aston Villa |
| 11' | 🟨 | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Fulham |
| 11' | 🟨 | Matt Targett · Aston Villa |
| 15' | ⚽ | Conor Hourihane · Aston Villa |
| 23' | 🟨 | Tom Cairney · Fulham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Fulham |
| 47' | 🟨 | Denis Odoi · Fulham |
| 48' | ⚽ | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
| 59' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 68' | 🟨 | Maxime Le Marchand · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| Aboubakar Kamara · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 605.00 | 728.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1369.18 | 1448.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.25 | 57.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.83 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 9.11 | 6.99 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 25.28 |
| state index | -1.09 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.52 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 161.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |