← Premier League 2020-21 · Sat, Sep 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Leeds win | 56% | 51% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.91 | fair |
| Fulham win | 18% | 29% | 5.25 | value: +55% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fulham −0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Leeds −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 44% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 56% | 2.03 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand