← Premier League 2019-20 · Sun, Jul 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 48% | 46% | 2.05 | fair |
| Watford win | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.84 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Arsenal −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 60% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 40% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 24' | ⚽ | Kieran Tierney · Arsenal |
| 33' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 35' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Watford |
| 51' | 🟨 | Craig Dawson · Watford |
| 66' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Watford |
| 72' | 🟨 | Rob Holding · Arsenal |
| 74' | 🟨 | Emiliano Martínez · |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 25.00 |
| 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1681.70 | 1500.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.00 | -8.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.62 |
| league points | 53.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 4.82 | 4.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.37 | 29.71 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 22.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |