← Premier League 2019-20 · Sun, Jul 12, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 37% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 35% | 47% | 2.78 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 28% | 15% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Tottenham +0 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 60% | 1.93 | value: +16% |
| Under | 50% | 40% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Giovani Lo Celso · Tottenham |
| 16' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 19' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 34' | 🟨 | Serge Aurier · Tottenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pépé · Arsenal |
| 76' | 🟨 | Harry Winks · Tottenham |
| 81' | ⚽ | Toby Alderweireld · Tottenham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Steven Bergwijn · Tottenham |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.63 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.57 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 254.00 | 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1869.31 | 1866.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.34 | 26.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | 0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| league points | 49.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 2.94 | 4.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 28.31 | 26.82 |
| state index | 0.87 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 6.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |