← Premier League 2019-20 · Sun, Jul 12, 01:15 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 41% | 46% | 2.35 | value: +9% |
| Crystal Palace win | 31% | 33% | 3.17 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Aston Villa −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
| 27' | 🟨 | Mamadou Sakho · Crystal Palace |
| 27' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mahmoud Trézéguet · Aston Villa |
| 54' | 🟨 | Cheikhou Kouyaté · Crystal Palace |
| 59' | ⚽ | Mahmoud Trézéguet · Aston Villa |
| 67' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟥 | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 21 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 650.00 | 1045.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.25 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1667.56 | 1767.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.60 | -21.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| league points | 27.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 4.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.82 | 30.58 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.14 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 174.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |