← Premier League 2019-20 · Sat, Jul 11, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Watford win | 51% | 59% | 1.92 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 16% | 3.60 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 22% | 25% | 4.41 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Watford −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Newcastle −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 37% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 63% | 2.13 | value: +35% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 23 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand