← Premier League 2019-20 · Thu, Jun 25, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Arsenal win | 37% | 35% | 2.65 | fair |
| Southampton win | 36% | 47% | 2.70 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 27% | 18% | 3.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Southampton +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Arsenal +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +4% |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand