← Premier League 2019-20 · Sat, Mar 7, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 36% | 37% | 2.73 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 36% | 43% | 2.74 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 29% | 20% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Tottenham +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
| 19' | 🟨 | Érik Lamela · Tottenham |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 51' | 🟨 | Charlie Taylor · Burnley |
| 56' | 🟨 | Davinson Sánchez · Tottenham |
| 57' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jack Cork · Burnley |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jeff Hendrick · Burnley |
| 78' | 🟨 | Steven Bergwijn · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ashley Westwood · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giovani Lo Celso · Tottenham |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 2714.00 |
| 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1567.96 | 1674.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.50 | 8.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.63 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| league points | 38.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 6.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.85 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.56 | 24.95 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 283.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |