← Premier League 2019-20 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 35% | 28% | 2.80 | fair |
| Watford win | 34% | 41% | 2.89 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Watford +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 55% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 45% | 2.41 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
| 31' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Watford |
| 41' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 50' | 🟨 | Cheikhou Kouyaté · Crystal Palace |
| 50' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 52' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ignacio Pussetto · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Ayew · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 918.00 | 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1781.56 | 1750.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.92 | 5.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.90 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| league points | 36.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -1.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 30.37 | 28.87 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 35.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |