β Premier League 2019-20 Β· Sat, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 44% | 46% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.38 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 27% | 29% | 3.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley β0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bournemouth β0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 55% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 45% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | π¨ | Simon Francis Β· Bournemouth |
| 53' | β½ | MatΔj Vydra Β· Burnley |
| 61' | β½ (pen) | Jay Rodriguez Β· Burnley |
| 64' | π¨ | Phil Bardsley Β· Burnley |
| 83' | π¨ | Aaron Lennon Β· Burnley |
| 87' | β½ | Dwight McNeil Β· Burnley |
| 89' | π¨ | Jeff Hendrick Β· Burnley |
| 90' | π¨ | Ben Mee Β· Burnley |
| 90' | π¨ | Steve Cook Β· Bournemouth |
| 90' | π¨ | Adam Smith Β· Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2700.00 | 2700.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1556.17 | 1481.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.10 | -16.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 34.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 13.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.80 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.52 | 27.24 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| travel km | β | 340.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |