← Premier League 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Liverpool win | 72% | 78% | 1.36 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.75 | fair |
| Norwich win | 11% | 6% | 9.19 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Norwich +1.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Liverpool +1.5 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 58% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 42% | 2.80 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand