← Premier League 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 40% | 36% | 2.45 | fair |
| Watford win | 32% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 38% | 3.40 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Everton +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 48% | 1.82 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Adam Masina · Watford |
| 42' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yerry Mina · Everton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Yerry Mina · Everton |
| 58' | 🟨 | Fabian Delph · Everton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Watford |
| 71' | 🟨 | Fabian Delph · Everton |
| 71' | 🟥 | Fabian Delph · Everton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Isaac Success · Watford |
| 84' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Everton |
| 86' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| 90' | ⚽ | Theo Walcott · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 62.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1522.66 | 1591.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.09 | 12.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.60 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 23.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 10.81 | 10.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 29.71 | 26.51 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 263.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |