β Premier League 2019-20 Β· Sat, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Graham Scott, England
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Chelsea win | 78% | 86% | 1.24 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 7.01 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 8% | 4% | 13.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bournemouth β2 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Chelsea β2 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 67% | 54% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 46% | 3.01 | value: +39% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand