← Premier League 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 58% | 40% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 35% | 4.20 | value: +48% |
| Aston Villa win | 19% | 25% | 5.25 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +1 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Leicester +1 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 56% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 44% | 2.54 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Tyrone Mings · Aston Villa |
| 20' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 36' | 🟨 | Marvelous Nakamba · Aston Villa |
| 38' | 🟨 | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 41' | ⚽ | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Wesley · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jack Grealish · Aston Villa |
| 49' | ⚽ | Jonny Evans · Leicester |
| 50' | 🟨 | Matt Targett · Aston Villa |
| 60' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Villa Park |
| 🟨 |
| John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Grealish · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 433.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1424.27 | 1700.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.46 | 49.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 2.38 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 15.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 3.77 | 3.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.67 | 27.06 |
| state index | -0.31 | 1.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 51.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |