← Premier League 2019-20 · Sun, Nov 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 59% | 53% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
| Brighton win | 15% | 21% | 6.50 | value: +40% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Brighton −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 39% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 61% | 2.04 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Dale Stephens · Brighton |
| 17' | ⚽ | Andreas Pereira · Man United |
| 19' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 19' | ⚽ | Scott McTominay · Man United |
| 30' | 🟨 | Martín Montoya · Brighton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dan Burn · Brighton |
| 58' | 🟨 | Brandon Williams · Man United |
| 64' | ⚽ | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 66' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 74' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| Davy Pröpper · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 344.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1877.77 | 1701.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.98 | 40.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.85 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.60 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| league points | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 26.25 |
| state index | 1.22 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 326.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |