← Premier League 2019-20 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andy Madley, England
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Norwich win | 40% | 31% | 2.46 | fair |
| Aston Villa win | 34% | 28% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 41% | 3.62 | value: +47% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Aston Villa −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Norwich −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 53% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 47% | 2.61 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 22 |
| 5 | On target | 12 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand