← Premier League 2019-20 · Sun, Sep 22, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 68% | 71% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.23 | value: +6% |
| Aston Villa win | 13% | 9% | 7.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −1.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Aston Villa −1.25 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 59% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 41% | 3.03 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Ainsley Maitland-Niles · Arsenal |
| 20' | ⚽ | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 35' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ainsley Maitland-Niles · Arsenal |
| 41' | 🟥 | Ainsley Maitland-Niles · Arsenal |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · Arsenal |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas Pépé · Arsenal |
| 60' | ⚽ | Wesley · Aston Villa |
| 81' | ⚽ | Calum Chambers · Arsenal |
| 83' | 🟨 | Björn Engels · Aston Villa |
| 84' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pépé · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bernd Leno · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 509.00 | 356.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.64 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1722.76 | 1367.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.45 | 15.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 2.94 | 5.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.63 | — |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 25.79 |
| state index | 0.64 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 161.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |