← Premier League 2019-20 · Sun, Sep 15, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 52% | 42% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.92 | fair |
| Watford win | 23% | 35% | 4.22 | value: +47% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Watford +0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 36% | 2.69 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 32' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 43' | 🟨 | Sead Kolašinac · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · Arsenal |
| 53' | ⚽ | Tom Cleverley · Watford |
| 56' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Watford |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bernd Leno · Arsenal |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 31 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 14.00 | 502.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 4.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1484.89 | 1707.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -60.36 | -18.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 15.06 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 29.15 | 26.67 |
| state index | -1.19 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 22.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |