← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 71% | 67% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.36 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 11% | 15% | 8.49 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 55' | ⚽ | Alex Pritchard · Huddersfield |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days |
| 162.00 |
| 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1512.38 | 1345.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.24 | -12.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| league points | 38.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.23 | 26.62 |
| state index | -0.33 | -1.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 306.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |