← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 74% | 77% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 6.06 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 10% | 6% | 9.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Cardiff |
| 28' | 🟨 | Leandro Bacuna · Cardiff |
| 44' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Man United |
| 54' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Cardiff |
| 61' | 🟨 | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 61' | 🟨 | Josh Murphy · Cardiff |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jesse Lingard · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sean Morrison · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 162.00 | 953.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1917.90 | 1642.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.86 | -11.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 66.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 62.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 36.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -2.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.77 | 28.42 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -2.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 229.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |