← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 39% | 34% | 2.52 | fair |
| Arsenal win | 35% | 45% | 2.80 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Tom Heaton · Burnley |
| 22' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 45' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
| 48' | 🟨 | Matthew Lowton · Burnley |
| 52' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · Arsenal |
| 52' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 63' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jack Cork · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Edward Nketiah · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 3 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2414.00 | 376.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1726.72 | 1908.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.53 | -26.30 |
| eye test v1 | -1.20 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.90 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| league points | 40.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.18 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.52 | 29.13 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 286.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |