← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 79% | 78% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 7.24 | fair |
| Brighton win | 7% | 12% | 13.17 | value: +63% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 28' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 38' | ⚽ | Aymeric Laporte · Man City |
| 63' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Man City |
| 72' | ⚽ | İlkay Gündoğan · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 11.00 | 1045.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1652.38 | 2136.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.68 | 23.43 |
| eye test v1 | -1.28 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.85 |
| league points | 36.00 | 95.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 2.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | 2.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 26.99 |
| state index | -0.34 | 2.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | 1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 325.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |