← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 73% | 70% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.76 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 10% | 18% | 9.96 | value: +78% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Scott McTominay · Man United |
| 33' | 🟨 | Phil Jones · Man United |
| 60' | ⚽ | Isaac Mbenza · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonas Lössl · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 124.00 | 155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1528.27 | 1925.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.30 | -47.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| league points | 14.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.39 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 27.58 |
| state index | -1.21 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 40.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |