← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 75% | 69% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 21% | 5.98 | value: +24% |
| Watford win | 9% | 10% | 10.83 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | ⚽ | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · Chelsea |
| 51' | ⚽ | David Luiz · Chelsea |
| 75' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 308.00 | 489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1925.78 | 1754.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.80 | -7.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 68.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.27 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 29.49 |
| state index | 0.97 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 23.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |