← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 77% | 71% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.31 | value: +10% |
| Brighton win | 8% | 11% | 12.29 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 14' | 🟨 | Sokratis · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 60' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Stephan Lichtsteiner · Arsenal |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · Arsenal |
| 84' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 16 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.13 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 369.00 | 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1901.58 | 1645.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.96 | -35.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -1.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.57 |
| league points | 66.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| squad age | 28.37 | 28.84 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 77.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |