← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 64% | 57% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.39 | value: +11% |
| Fulham win | 14% | 17% | 7.01 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 22' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Fulham |
| 32' | 🟨 | Maxime Le Marchand · Fulham |
| 73' | 🟨 | Cyrus Christie · Fulham |
| 75' | ⚽ | Leander Dendoncker · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 733.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1793.28 | 1654.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.13 | 32.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.77 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| league points | 54.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 26.58 |
| state index | 1.04 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 180.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |