← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 73% | 62% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 25% | 5.56 | value: +38% |
| Newcastle win | 10% | 13% | 9.80 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 20' | ⚽ | Christian Atsu · Newcastle |
| 28' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 54' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · Newcastle |
| 86' | ⚽ | Divock Origi · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Milner · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 1159.00 | 772.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1752.90 | 2078.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.56 | 23.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.77 |
| league points | 42.00 | 91.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 64.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 2.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | 1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 26.73 |
| state index | 0.75 | 2.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 192.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |