← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 63% | 49% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.75 | value: +20% |
| Bournemouth win | 16% | 26% | 5.99 | value: +54% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Eric Dier · Tottenham |
| 23' | 🟨 | Toby Alderweireld · Tottenham |
| 40' | 🟨 | Moussa Sissoko · Tottenham |
| 43' | 🟥 | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 48' | 🟥 | Juan Foyth · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Victor Wanyama · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nathan Aké · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 2406.00 | 1768.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1721.10 | 1943.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.23 | -11.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 68.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 42.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 20.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.20 | 26.57 |
| state index | 0.06 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 156.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |