← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 84% | 79% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 12% | 9.44 | value: +13% |
| Burnley win | 5% | 9% | 18.20 | value: +72% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 63' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 87' | 🟨 | Matthew Lowton · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | İlkay Gündoğan · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 2 | Shots | 25 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2400.00 | 1031.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 4.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1738.87 | 2132.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.87 | 22.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 1.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.30 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.88 |
| league points | 40.00 | 89.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 68.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 2.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.57 | 2.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.89 | 27.81 |
| state index | 0.98 | 2.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | 1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 34.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |