← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Simon Hooper, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 36% | 40% | 2.73 | value: +9% |
| Wolves win | 34% | 32% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Wolves |
| 49' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Watford |
| 61' | 🟨 | João Moutinho · Wolves |
| 62' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 77' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 84' | 🟨 | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 85' | 🟨 | Isaac Success · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 481.00 | 726.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 4.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1766.26 | 1782.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.21 | -2.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 50.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.25 | 26.92 |
| state index | 0.76 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 157.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |