← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 72% | 75% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.55 | fair |
| West Ham win | 11% | 10% | 8.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Robert Snodgrass · West Ham |
| 67' | ⚽ | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ryan Fredericks · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 3 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days | 1761.00 | 361.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1960.75 | 1726.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.46 | -22.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.70 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 70.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.83 | 29.09 |
| state index | 1.65 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 9.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |