← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 54% | 42% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 32% | 3.97 | value: +29% |
| Bournemouth win | 21% | 26% | 4.58 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Shane Long · Southampton |
| 20' | ⚽ | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 26' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 32' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 35' | 🟨 | Shane Long · Southampton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 55' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 67' | ⚽ | Matt Targett · Southampton |
| 86' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 147.00 | 2399.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1730.89 | 1719.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.16 | -24.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 37.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.73 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 25.48 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.31 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 36.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |