← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 40% | 35% | 2.46 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 32% | 27% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 38% | 3.49 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 74' | 🟨 | Cheikhou Kouyaté · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
| 0 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| coach days | 603.00 | 361.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1776.95 | 1806.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.50 | 53.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 67.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 42.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.36 | 26.90 |
| state index | 0.53 | 1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 299.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |