← Premier League 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 90% | 87% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 8% | 14.10 | value: +19% |
| Huddersfield win | 3% | 5% | 34.97 | value: +64% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Naby Keïta · Liverpool |
| 23' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 66' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 83' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 764.00 | 115.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.41 |
| elo | 2077.50 | 1529.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.27 | -26.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.57 |
| league points | 88.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.51 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.59 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 26.08 |
| state index | 2.22 | -1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 82.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |