← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 36% | 38% | 2.72 | value: +4% |
| Wolves win | 35% | 37% | 2.77 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Matt Doherty · Wolves |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nacho Monreal · Arsenal |
| 28' | ⚽ | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
| 31' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 37' | ⚽ | Matt Doherty · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Arsenal |
| 45' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 80' | ⚽ | Sokratis · Arsenal |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ryan Bennett · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days |
| 723.00 |
| 358.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.67 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1506.32 | 1773.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.42 | 4.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.80 |
| league points | 48.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 26.76 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 179.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |