← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 65% | 64% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.78 | value: +7% |
| Man United win | 14% | 13% | 6.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 24' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Man United |
| 26' | 🟨 | Oleksandr Zinchenko · Man City |
| 54' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 66' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 89' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 144.00 | 1027.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 3.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.79 |
| elo | 1936.96 | 2122.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.04 | 15.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 1.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| league points | 64.00 | 86.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 69.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 2.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 15.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 21.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 2.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 25.94 | 25.87 |
| state index | 0.57 | 2.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 6.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |