← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 44% | 41% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Southampton win | 28% | 31% | 3.52 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Shane Long · Southampton |
| 17' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 26' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 40' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Gerard Deulofeu · Watford |
| 75' | 🟨 | Christian Kabasele · Watford |
| 80' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 477.00 | 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1769.09 | 1728.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.28 | 23.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 49.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.25 | 25.92 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -1.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 107.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |