← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 77% | 83% | 1.26 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.34 | fair |
| Brighton win | 7% | 5% | 13.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Florin Andone · Brighton |
| 46' | 🟨 | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Bernardo · Brighton |
| 88' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.09 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.13 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.36 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days | 1757.00 | 1604.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1958.65 | 1645.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.00 | -51.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -1.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.53 |
| league points | 67.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.00 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 29.40 |
| state index | 1.34 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 82.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |