← Premier League 2018-19 · Mon, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 78% | 77% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 16% | 6.46 | value: +5% |
| Burnley win | 7% | 7% | 14.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jeff Hendrick · Burnley |
| 12' | ⚽ | N'Golo Kanté · Chelsea |
| 14' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Chelsea |
| 24' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 32' | 🟨 | Tom Heaton · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateo Kovačić · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 295.00 | 2394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.31 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1931.78 | 1732.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.47 | 31.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 66.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 27.87 |
| state index | 1.46 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 291.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |