← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 64% | 67% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.70 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 15% | 12% | 6.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Mavropanos · Arsenal |
| 17' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 47' | ⚽ | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
| 61' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
| 68' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · Arsenal |
| 69' | ⚽ | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 77' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 81' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 85' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days |
| 355.00 |
| 597.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1789.92 | 1559.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.80 | -7.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.72 |
| league points | 66.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.48 | 28.50 |
| state index | 1.25 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 17.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |