← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 43% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
| West Ham win | 30% | 29% | 3.29 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 49' | 🟨 | Robert Snodgrass · West Ham |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 70' | 🟨 | Declan Rice · West Ham |
| 82' | ⚽ | Lucas Pérez · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 354.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1727.35 | 1763.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.53 | 27.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 42.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 28.71 | 26.03 |
| state index | -0.12 | 1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 144.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |