← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 39% | 39% | 2.52 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 43% | 3.06 | value: +31% |
| Southampton win | 29% | 18% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 27' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Newcastle |
| 31' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Newcastle |
| 59' | ⚽ | Mario Lemina · Southampton |
| 62' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 86' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 1145.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1741.98 | 1740.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.36 | 33.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.60 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| league points | 38.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 35.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | -2.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.29 | 25.39 |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | -1.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 452.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |