← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 77% | 63% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 28% | 6.62 | value: +87% |
| Tottenham win | 9% | 9% | 11.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 86' | 🟨 | Victor Wanyama · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Vertonghen · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 1023.00 | 1754.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.87 | 0.63 |
| elo | 2117.74 | 1963.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.33 | -16.76 |
| eye test v1 | 1.94 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 83.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 3.05 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.40 | 27.22 |
| state index | 2.48 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.46 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 253.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |