← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 49% | 39% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.54 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 24% | 39% | 4.08 | value: +59% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Watford |
| 17' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 19' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 24' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · Huddersfield |
| 80' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Karlan Grant · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 109.00 | 474.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1534.93 | 1763.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.95 | 2.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.41 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 28.49 |
| state index | -1.07 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 241.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |