← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Coote, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 55% | 58% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 16% | 4.09 | fair |
| Fulham win | 21% | 27% | 4.66 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 59' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Fulham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Mitrović · Fulham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Steve Cook · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Rico · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 2392.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1733.41 | 1631.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.09 | -0.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| league points | 41.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.64 | 26.09 |
| state index | 0.54 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 139.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |