← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 48% | 45% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.26 | value: +13% |
| Cardiff win | 22% | 20% | 4.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Cardiff |
| 50' | ⚽ | Sean Morrison · Cardiff |
| 79' | 🟨 | Joe Bennett · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1597.00 |
| 927.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1457.88 | 1397.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.38 | -0.49 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| league points | 33.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 35.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -2.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.86 | 28.34 |
| state index | -0.80 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | -1.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 227.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |