← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 79% | 77% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.06 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 7% | 12% | 13.30 | value: +56% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 63' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 81' | ⚽ | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 590.00 | 1017.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 9.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 10.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| elo | 1765.60 | 2112.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.25 | 11.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | 2.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.90 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 39.00 | 80.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 90.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 74.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 20.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 22.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 3.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 0.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 28.00 | 25.85 |
| state index | 0.63 | 2.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | 1.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 272.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |