← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 35% | 54% | 2.79 | value: +50% ⚠ |
| Wolves win | 34% | 25% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 21% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 28' | ⚽ | Willy Boly · Wolves |
| 30' | ⚽ | Nathan Redmond · Southampton |
| 40' | 🟨 | João Moutinho · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Raúl Jiménez · Wolves |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ryan Bertrand · Southampton |
| 71' | ⚽ | Shane Long · Southampton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Romain Saïss · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 133.00 | 712.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1725.59 | 1782.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.21 | -3.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -1.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 33.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.80 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 25.77 | 26.59 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.50 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| travel km | — | 194.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |